Most economists believe the U.S. economy will enter the next recession by the end of 2021. Though that date is already fast approaching, the spread of the novel coronavirus (COVID-19) across the world — and the disruption and uncertainty it has brought with it — has suddenly thrust the impending threat of a recession into urgent clarity, and on a global scale.

On Monday this week, stemming from fears of the U.S. economy shutting down or slowing operations in an attempt to contain the virus’s spread, U.S. markets saw the steepest single-day drop since 2008. As Neil Irwin wrote in The Upshot earlier this week, “These market prices are telling us that a recession is becoming more likely in the United States this year, and that it will probably leave scars on the economy for years to come.”